Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions of electricity and carbon-reduction policy implication: a study of a province in China based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index method

Characteristics of CO2 emissions generated by electricity are analysed to provide a basis for formulating CO2-reduction policies in power systems. Using a case study in Anhui Province, China for 2010-2019, the influence of factors driving CO2 emissions is quantified by means of the logarithmic mean Divisia index method. As the proportion of electricity in final energy consumption gradually increases, CO2 emissions reduction actions in the power system will become the key to achieving China's carbon-peak and carbon-neutrality goals. It is essential to analyse and quantify the driving forces of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in the fossil-rich area in China. This paper aims to identify the characteristics of CO2 emissions generated by electricity and provide a basis for formulating CO2-reduction policies in power systems. First, we analyse the current state of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in Anhui Province that was dominated by fossil energy during the period 2010-19. Then, we apply the logarithmic mean Divisia index method to find the nature of the factors influencing the changes in CO2 emissions. Finally, we analyse the CO2-reduction measures of each side of the source-network-load-storage of the power system in Anhui through a power-system carbon-reduction path analysis model proposed in this study and provide policy suggestions. The results showed the following. (i) CO2 emissions in Anhui Province continued to increase from 2010 to 2019 and the trend in the growth rate of CO2 emissions presented approximately a u-shaped curve. (ii) Economic activity has always been the dominant factor driving the growth of electricity CO2 emissions. The increase in the proportion of renewable energy in power generation, the improvement in thermal power-conversion efficiency and the decrease in the intensity of power consumption are the three major driving factors for the reduction in CO2 emissions from power generation in Anhui. (iii) The CO2-reduction measures of the power system are provided in each link of the source-network-load-storage, such as developing the photovoltaic industry and building energy storage, upgrading and transforming coal-fired power stations, reducing the loss rate of transmission lines on the grid side and improving the efficiency of the utilization of electricity on the user side.