Hierarchical response surface method for reliability analysis of a pile-slope system

Stabilizing piles have been widely used as an effective measure to reinforce slopes. In this paper, a hierarchical response surface method is presented to evaluate the reliability of a pile-slope system efficiently. The suggested method can be used to identify the minimum reliability indexes of different types of failure modes. It can also be used to identify the representative failure modes governing the failure probability of the pile-slope system. This study found that the most critical sliding surface of an unreinforced slope and a reinforced slope is different. It may be nonconservative to design a pile-slope system according to the representative sliding surface of the slope without reinforcements. Even if many failure modes may exist, the reliability index of the pile-slope system is often controlled by several representative failure modes. For the slope examined in this paper, the reliability index of the pile-slope system is controlled by the reliability index of first representative failure mode. The first representative failure mode may vary with the reinforcement ratio, pile length, pile spacing, and location of the piles. The approach presented in this study provides a practical means to quantify the effect of such factors on the design of a pile-slope system.