Research on club convergence effect and its influencing factors of per capita energy consumption: Evidence from the data of 243 prefecture-level cities in China

Energy consumption plays an important role in supporting economic growth. As the largest developing country in China, the uncoordinated energy consumption among regions has seriously affected economic growth and the realization of energy strategic goals. Based on the data of per capita energy consumption of 243 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2019, the nonlinear time-varying factor model and its clustering algorithm are adopted to test the club convergence effect of urban per capita energy consumption, and the Ordered Probit model is further used to reveal their influence factors. The research shows that there are 4 convergent clubs and 1 divergent club in 243 prefecture-level cities in China, and it is determined that initial energy endowment, the level of urban industrialization structure, the level of opening to the outside world and per capita GDP are the influencing factors on the convergence of per capita energy consumption. The research conclusions can provide a basis and reference for realizing the transformation of energy consumption between regions, and then promoting the coordinated development of regions.