The Effects of Urban Sprawl on Electricity Consumption: Empirical Evidence from 283 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

Under the urban development trend of sprawl, improving energy use efficiency is a proper way to promote green and low-carbon construction in cities. This paper uses panel data from 283 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2008 to 2019 to measure the urban sprawl index, and analyze the spatial-temporal evolution law of urban sprawl and electricity consumption. The relationship between urban sprawl and electricity consumption is empirically examined, and the differential effect of urban sprawl on electricity consumption is analyzed. Finally, the impact of urban sprawl on electricity consumption based on a spatial perspective is explored in depth by establishing a spatial error model. We found the following: (1) The levels of urban sprawl and urban electricity consumption are on the rise. The spatial distribution of urban sprawl is more dispersed, and cities with high electricity consumption levels are mostly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas. (2) Urban sprawl exacerbates electricity consumption, and this conclusion is still robust after a series of robustness tests were conducted and endogeneity issues were taken into account. In terms of the influence mechanism, urban sprawl mainly affects electricity consumption by changing the allocation of land resources, increasing the dependence on private transportation, and inhibiting green technology innovation. (3) The incremental effect of urban sprawl on electricity consumption is more pronounced in cities with high sprawl levels, weak environmental regulations, and low green innovation levels, as well as in west cities. (4) Urban sprawl and electricity consumption both have a significant positive spatial correlation. Electricity consumption of cities is not only related to their own regions but also influenced by the adjacent regions, and the spatial correlation is mainly reflected in the random error term. This paper deepens the understanding of the basic laws of urban sprawl affecting urban low-carbon development, which also has implications for new urbanization strategies and green development.