The impact of industrial land mismatch on carbon emissions in resource-based cities under environmental regulatory constraints-evidence from China

Achieving carbon neutrality has become a global common goal. For China, to reach peak carbon emissions and long-term carbon neutrality, the transformation and development of resource-based cities are essential. This study uses data from 114 prefecture-level resource-based cities from 2008 to 2019 as a sample and empirically tests the impact of industrial land mismatch on carbon emissions using the fixed effects model. In addition, we analyze the heterogeneous influence of environmental regulation as a moderating effect on resource-based cities at different development stages. The study reveals that (1) there is a significant positive correlation between the imbalance in industrial land supply in resource-based cities and carbon emissions. The more severe the imbalance, the higher the carbon emissions. The improper supply mode of industrial land is also positively correlated with carbon emissions, although the impact is not significant. (2) Environmental regulation can significantly curb the carbon emission issues caused by the mismatch and imbalance in the scale of industrial land supply and the improper supply mode of industrial land. (3) Compared to strong resource-based cities, weak resource-security cities have a smaller impact on carbon emissions due to an imbalance in the supply of industrial land. This is mainly because resources in weak resource-security cities are becoming exhausted, making "ecology first, green and low carbon" the main tune for economic and social development. Both types of cities show a positive correlation between the improper supply of industrial land and carbon emissions, although neither is significant. (4) The intensity of the regulatory effect of environmental regulations on resource-based cities is influenced by resource abundance. The suppression of carbon emissions by environmental regulations is more apparent in strong resource-security cities than in weak resource-security cities.