Numerical examination of the geomorphic indicators for lateral fold growth

Fold-and-thrust belts (FTBs) develop widely in and around active orogenic belts on Earth. With the accumulation of structural shortening, thrust-related folds can grow by increasing their amplitudes and lengths, providing insights into the structural evolution of FTBs. Investigations of fold growth patterns and landscape responses through time and space have important implications for hydrocarbon exploration and geo-hazard assessment. Evidence for lateral fold propagation (i.e., increase in length) usually comes from geochronological constraints based on differences in onset timings along strike. However, these traditional methods are time consuming and economically costly. Alternatively, previous studies have proposed the use of geomorphic features to investigate the lateral fold propagation, including spatial variations in the patterns and densities of river channels, the configuration of the topographic profile along the fold crest, and the occurrence of wind gaps. However, such analyses are based on morphological features of present-day landscapes, which still need process-based vali-dations. Here, we conduct a series of landscape evolution models to reproduce fold growth and their associated geomorphic adjustments. Our results show that deflected rivers and inflected fold-crest elevation profile with decreasing gradient are reliable evidence of lateral fold propagation. The location of propagation is in accordance with the distribution of crest-profile slope breaks and the position where river deflection began. Then, we apply these findings to two natural examples located at the deformation fronts of the Tian Shan (NW China). Results suggest that 1) the Kashi anticline has experienced lateral propagation both westwards and eastwards; and 2) that the Yaken anticline has experienced accelerated tectonic uplift as well as eastwards propagation. These findings are supported by the constraints from geochronological dating and quantitative structural analysis. Future work that integrates folding mechanisms may provide novel insights into landscape response to complex deformation in active FTBs.