Ecological network assessment in dynamic landscapes: Multi-scenario simulation and conservation priority analysis

Dramatic land cover changes related to the accelerated urbanization process have led to habitat fragmentation and loss, resulting in biodiversity loss. Ecological Networks (ENs) have been seen as an effective solution for ecological conservation targeting habitat connectedness and ecosystem functions. The EN research is, however, generally depicted by current or historical landscape data, devoid of the potential future disturbances, which is detrimental to maintaining EN's stability and sustainability. This study combines the system dynamics (SD) model and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) to simulate land use patterns in Wuhan urban agglomeration (WUA), China. The simulated land use data were incorporated into EN modeling to assess the long-term dynamics of EN in WUA, considering two scenarios related to human activities and climate change. In parallel, a landscape graphs approach is used to estimate the spatial priority of EN for conservation in landscape dynamics. The results show that: (1) The grassland decreased from 2000 to 2020 and is expected to increase from 2020 to 2035. The area of construction land would reach its peak in 2035 while cultivated land would hit a low point. (2) Analysis of EN reveals habitat fragmentation and reduced connectivity from 2000 to 2020. From 2020 to 2035, an increase in EN connectivity is expected to be observed in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while SSP2-4.5 is the reduced scenario. (3) Southern and eastern WUA exhibit high conservation priority. The hotspots of local landscape changes are mainly the corridors that traverse through human activity areas and the edges of core habitats, which is critical to conserving. (4) The impact of natural and socioeconomic factors on EN exhibits spatial heterogeneity. This paper provides new insights to protect habitats and biodiversity to mitigate the challenge of human activities and climate change.