Simplified stochastic temperature model for storage reliability estimation of solid rocket propellants

In this study, a simplified stochastic temperature model is proposed for estimating the storage reliability of solid rocket propellants by temperature-induced damage. The cumulative damage to solid rocket propellants depends on the storage temperature history, and the storage reliability is related to the temperature variation and uncertainty. Therefore, a stochastic approach is required for the temperature model to estimate storage reliability. Several studies for the temperature specifications of weapons systems and materiel have focused on determining the limits of the operational environment. This paper presents a simple annual temperature model for storage reliability estimation by simulating domestic temperature statistics using temperature data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration and Monte Carlo simulation. The simplified stochastic temperature model consists of six temperature distributions and three normalized diurnal temperature profiles. The simplified stochastic temperature model divides a year into three temperature categories grouped by month. Each temperature category has two temperature distributions, diurnal minimum and maximum temperatures, and one normalized diurnal temperature profile. It was confirmed that the logarithmic cumulative damage index induced by temperature variation and uncertainty for one year in solid rocket propellants has a normal distribution, and the proposed simplified stochastic temperature model can adequately simulate the cumulative damage distribution of the solid rocket propellants.