Spatio-Temporal Trends in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Germany Analysis of the Claims Data of 63 Million Persons With Statutory Health Insurance From 2014 to 2019

Background: There are no data on recent trends in the incidence rate of type 2 dia-betes (T2D) in Germany. The aim of this study was to determine the sex-, age-, and region-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate between 2014 and 2019.Methods: Based on nationwide data from statutorily insured persons in Germany, negative binomial regression models were used to analyze age-and sex-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate. Age-and sex-adjusted trends were calculated for 401 administrative districts using a Bayesian spatio-temporal regression model.Results: During the period concerned, approximately 450 000 new cases of T2D were observed each year among some 63 million persons. Taking all age groups together, the incidence rate decreased in both women and men, from 6.9 (95% con-fidence interval [6.7; 7.0]) and 8.4 [8.2; 8.6] respectively per 1000 persons in 2014 to 6.1 [5.9; 6.3] and 7.7 [7.5; 8.0] per 1000 persons in 2019. This corresponds to an annual reduction of 2.4% [1.5; 3.2] for women and 1.7% [0.8; 2.5] for men. The inci-dence rate increased in the age group 20-39 years. The age-and sex-adjusted inci-dence rate decreased in almost all districts, although regional differences persisted.Conclusion: The T2D incidence rate should be closely monitored to see whether the decreasing trend continues. One must not forget that the prevalence can rise des-pite decreasing incidence. For this reason, the findings do not necessarily mean a decrease in the disease burden of T2D and the associated demand on healthcare resources.Cite this as:Tonnies T, Hoyer A, Brinks R, Kuss O, Hering R, Schulz M: Spatio-temporal trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes in Germany-analysis of the claims data of 63 million persons with statutory health insurance from 2014 to 2019. Dtsch Arztebl Int 2023; 120: 173-9. DOI: 10.3238/arztebl.m2022.0405