Data scarce modelling the impact of present and future groundwater development on Jordan multiaquifer groundwater resources

Rapidly growing demands and climate change stresses water resources worldwide and leads to highly competitive situations between the environment and socio-economic development of a region, calling for a smart and modelling driven water resources management. However, data scarcity often prevents the realisation of a comprehensive, nation-wide resources model, which provides reliable and spatially discretized results of water resources development. We present a workflow approach to set up a large-scale multi-aquifer model, overcoming data shortage by stepwise calibration and integrating hydrological and numerical groundwater flow modelling into a coupled system. The study aims to develop such a system to assess how groundwater resources react on anthropogenic impacts on the example of the Kingdom of Jordan, one of the water poorest countries on globe.Simulated heads reliably resembled the monitored ones in >70 % of the observation wells. That makes us confident, the model represents all the states well from 1970, prior to the intense development of the country until 2015. The water balance shows an annual deficit of 1.16 million cubic meter (MCM) due to an overdraft. The discharge to the Dead Sea increased from 564 MCM/yr to 696 MCM/yr over the time period. Regional drawdowns of >250 m and groundwater depression with an extension of approx.100 km are observable in both large aquifer complexes. Most severe areas in the upper calcareous aquifer are located in the north of Amman and practically in all urban and agricultural agglomerations across the country. Groundwater tables in the deeper sandstone aquifer are particularly affected in the south as well as in the wider vicinity of the Dead Sea as consequence of its continuous dropping. Simulations of the future development of the groundwater tables indicate a severe deterioration of the situation with further declines in groundwater levels of up to 70 m.