The Future Impact of Shipping Emissions on Air Quality in Europe under Climate Change

Ship engine combustion emits several atmospheric pollutants, such as PM, SOx, and NOx, which can have adverse health effects and are significant contributors to decreased air quality. Due to the distribution of maritime transport activity routes in the EU, a large portion of the population is exposed to shipping emissions throughout Europe. Therefore, in light of the European Commission long-term objective of "zero-waste, zero-emission" for maritime transport, the focus of this study was to quantify the impact of shipping emissions in the present, as well as the future, considering both emissions projection for the shipping sector and a climate change scenario. The WRF-CHIMERE modelling system was used to quantify the impact of shipping in Europe. To obtain the current and future contributions of maritime transport to the total pollutant concentrations, simulations were divided into two present (baseline and without shipping) and three future scenarios (shipping projection, climate change, and shipping projection and climate change). The results indicate that the current and future impacts of shipping emissions on pollutant concentrations are similar in some regions (NO2 for Northern Europe and SO2 for Southern Europe), which is due to the enforcement of emission control areas for those pollutants. However, efforts towards lowering emissions from the shipping sector are negated in the south of this domain due to the concentration changes caused by the climate change scenario. In light of these changes, the introduction of a NECA is proposed for the Mediterranean, which would help us to make great strides to reduce the impact of the shipping sector in the region and aid in counteracting the effects of climate change.