Association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and type 2 diabetes mellitus: dual evidence from NHANES database and Mendelian randomization analysis

Background: Low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are commonly seen in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, it is unclear whether there is an independent or causal link between HDL-C levels and T2DM. This study aims to address this gap by using the The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database and Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. Materials and methods: Data from the NHANES survey (2007-2018) with 9,420 participants were analyzed using specialized software. Logistic regression models and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to assess the relationship between HDL-C and T2DM incidence, while considering covariates. Genetic variants associated with HDL-C and T2DM were obtained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to evaluate the causal relationship between HDL-C and T2DM. Various tests were conducted to assess pleiotropy and outliers. Results: In the NHANES study, all groups, except the lowest quartile (Q1: 0.28-1.09 mmol/L], showed a significant association between HDL-C levels and reduced T2DM risk (all P < 0.001). After adjusting for covariates, the Q2 [odds ratio (OR) = 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): (0.57, 0.79)], Q3 [OR = 0.51, 95% CI: (0.40, 0.65)], and Q4 [OR = 0.29, 95% CI: (0.23, 0.36)] groups exhibited average reductions in T2DM risk of 23%, 49%, and 71%, respectively. In the sensitivity analysis incorporating other lipid levels, the Q4 group still demonstrates a 57% reduction in the risk of T2DM. The impact of HDL-C levels on T2DM varied with age (P for interaction = 0.006). RCS analysis showed a nonlinear decreasing trend in T2DM risk with increasing HDL-C levels (P = 0.003). In the MR analysis, HDL-C levels were also associated with reduced T2DM risk (OR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.52-0.82; P = 1.41 x 10(-13)), and there was no evidence of pleiotropy or outliers. Conclusion: This study provides evidence supporting a causal relationship between higher HDL-C levels and reduced T2DM risk. Further research is needed to explore interventions targeting HDL-C levels for reducing T2DM risk.