Nonlinear relationship between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and cardiovascular disease: an observational and Mendelian randomization analysis

Background: Clinical trials and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies reported null effects of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) on risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which might have overlooked a nonlinear causal association. We aimed to investigate the dose-response relationship between circulating HDL-C concentrations and CVD in observational and MR frameworks. Methods: We included 348,636 participants (52,919 CVD cases and 295,717 non-cases) of European ancestry with genetic data from the UK Biobank (UKB) and acquired genome-wide association summary data for HDL-C of Europeans from the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium (GLGC). Observational analyses were conducted in the UKB. Stratified MR analyses were conducted combing genetic data for CVD from UKB and lipids from GLGC. Results: Observational analyses showed L-shaped associations of HDL-C with CVD, with no further risk reduction when HDL-C levels exceeded 70 mg/dL. Multivariable MR analyses across entire distribution of HDL-C found no association of HDL-C with CVD, after control of the pleiotropic effect on other lipids and unmeasured pleiotropism. However, in stratified MR analyses, significant inverse associations of HDL-C with CVD were observed in the stratum of participants with HDL-C <= 50 mg/dL (odds ratio per unit increase, 0.86; 95 % confidence interval, 0.79-0.94), while null associations were observed in any stratum above 50 mg/dL. Conclusions: Our data suggest a potentially causal inverse association of HDL-C at low levels with CVD risks. These findings advance our knowledge about the role of HDL as a potential target in CVD prevention and therapy.