Apparent stress as an indicator of stress meta-instability The 2021 Yangbi earthquake in Yunnan, China

Investigating spatiotemporal changes in crustal stress associated with major earthquakes has implications for understanding seismogenic processes. However, in individual earthquake cases, the characteristics of the stress after it reaches its maximum value are rarely discussed. In this study, we use the 2021 MS6.4 Yangbi earthquake in Yunnan, China and events of magnitudes ML >= 3.0 occurred in the surrounding area in the previous 11 years to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of apparent stress. The results indicate that apparent stress began to increase in January 2015 and reached a maximum in January 2020. Apparent stress then remained at a high level until October 2020, after which it declined considerable. We suggest that the stress was in the accumulation stage from January 2015 to January 2020, and entered the meta-instability stage after October 2020. During the meta-instability stage, the zone of decreasing stress expanded continuously and the apparent stress increased around the Yangbi earthquake source region. These features are generally consistent with the results of laboratory rock stress experiments. We propose that apparent stress can be a good indicator for determining whether the stress at a specific location has entered the meta-instability stage and may become the epicenter of an impending strong earthquake.