Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

被引：21

作者：

Walmsley, Terrie ^{[1
,2
,6
]}

Rose, Adam ^{[1
,3
]}

John, Richard ^{[1
,4
]}

Wei, Dan ^{[1
,3
]}

Hlavka, Jakub P. ^{[1
,3
,5
]}

Machado, Juan ^{[1
]}

Byrd, Katie ^{[1
,4
]}

机构：

[1] USC, Ctr Risk & Econ Anal Threats & Emergencies CREATE, Los Angeles, CA USA

[2] Univ Southern Calif USC, Dept Econ, Dana & David Dornsife Coll Letters Arts & Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA

[3] USC, Sol Price Sch Publ Policy, Los Angeles, CA USA

[4] USC, Dept Psychol, Dana & David Dornsife Coll Letters Arts & Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA

[5] USC, Leonard D Schaeffer Ctr Hlth Policy & Econ, Los Angeles, CA USA

[6] Univ Southern Calif, Dept Econ, Dana & David Dornsife Coll Letters Arts & Sci, 3620 South Vermont Ave Kaprielian KAP Hall,300, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA

来源：

ECONOMIC MODELLING | 2023年 / 120卷

关键词：

Disaster economics; CGE Modeling; COVID-19; Avoidance behavior; Resilience; TOTAL ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES; MITIGATION; RESILIENCE; DISASTERS; IMPACTS; MODELS; HEALTH;

D O I：

10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106147

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We estimate the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the U.S. using a disaster economic consequence analysis framework implemented by a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This facilitates identification of relative influences of several causal factors as "shocks" to the model, including mandatory business closures, disease spread trajectories, behavioral responses, resilience, pent-up demand, and government stimulus packages. The analysis is grounded in primary data on avoidance behavior and healthcare parameters. The decomposition of the influence of various causal factors will help policymakers offset the negative influences and reinforce the positive ones during the remainder of this pandemic and future ones.

引用

页数：31

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