The Lifetime Prediction and Insulation Failure Mechanism of XLPE for High-Voltage Cable

The performance parameters and service life of the insulation layer of high-voltage cables are the key to ensure safe cable operation. Through extracting the mechanical parameters of high voltage cable insulation layer under different thermal aging temperatures, a normal linear regression model is established to predict the service life of high voltage cables. Meanwhile, the physicochemical characteristics such as microscopic morphology and molecular structure changes of the cable insulation layer are analyzed, the dielectric properties and breakdown field strength under ac condition are tested and themacroscopic electrical properties of the insulation layer are studied, and the insulation failure mechanism is further analyzed. The experimental results show that the elongation at break retention rate of cross-linkedpolyethylene (XLPE) increases slowly with the aging time, and then decreases rapidly when it reaches 50% of the initial elongation at break retention rate. The normal linear regression prediction model is established based on the Arrhenius formula, and it can be obtained the life endpoint of XLPE high voltage cable about 65 years at an operating temperature of 70 degrees C. Further analysis, under the action of heat and oxygen, the crystal zone structure of cable insulation is seriouslydamaged, and the carbonyl index is significantly increased. Accordingly, when the aging failure point is reached, the dielectric permittivity and dielectric loss of insulation are significantly increased, and the breakdown performance is significantly decreased. The work has an important guiding significance for insulation condition assessment and life prediction of high voltage cable.