Land Subsidence in Tianjin, China: Before and after the South-to-North Water Diversion

The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) is a multi-decadal infrastructure project in China aimed at alleviating severe water shortages in north China. It has imposed broad social, economic, environmental, and ecological impacts since 2015, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan area. Sentinel-1A/B Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) (2014-2021), Global Positioning System (GPS) (2010-2021), and hydraulic-head data are used to assess the impacts on ongoing land subsidence in Tianjin in this study. Additionally, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed to highlight primary factors controlling the recent land subsidence. Our results show that the reduced groundwater pumping has slowed down the overall subsidence since 2019 due to SNWD. As of 2021, the subsiding area (>5 mm/year) has reduced to about 5400 km(2), approximately 85% of the subsiding area before SNWD; the areas of rapid subsidence (>30 mm/year) and extremely rapid subsidence (>50 mm/year) have reduced to 1300 km(2) and 280 km(2), respectively, approximately 70% and 60% of the areas before SNWD. Recent subsidence (2016-2021) was primarily contributed by the inelastic compaction of clays in deep aquifers of Aquifers III and IV ranging from approximately 200 to 450 m below the land surface. The ongoing rapid subsidence (>30 mm/year) in Tianjin is limited to border areas adjacent to large industrial cities (e.g., Langfang, Tanshan, Cangzhou) in Hebei Province. Ongoing subsidence will cease when hydraulic heads in the deep Aquifers (IV and V) recover to the new pre-consolidation head, approximately 45 m below the land surface, and subsidence will not be reinitiated as long as the hydraulic heads remain above the new pre-consolidation head. This study reveals the importance of coordinating groundwater and surface water uses at local, regional, and national scales for land subsidence mitigation.