South-to-North Water Diversion Halting Long-Lived Subsidence in Tianjin, North China Plain

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China is the world's largest water transfer project, aiming to address water shortages in northern China by channeling water from the water-rich southern regions. Water resources in Tianjin have long been in severe deficit, with excessive groundwater extraction causing significant surface subsidence, negatively impacting urban infrastructure and economic development. As a result, Tianjin has become a key beneficiary of this water diversion project. To investigate the current situation of surface subsidence, we obtained the vertical displacement time series from 21 GNSS stations across Tianjin from 2011 to 2021 and analyzed overall subsidence changes and rehabilitation status. Results indicate that no clear surface subsidence was observed in the northern regions of Tianjin due to groundwater extraction mainly in unconfined aquifers. The southwestern region experienced the most significant surface subsidence due to overexploitation of deep groundwater, with peak cumulative subsidence exceeding 600 mm during the study period. The central, eastern, and southeastern coastal regions also faced severe surface subsidence with cumulative amounts ranging from 100 mm to 400 mm. The alleviation of subsidence predominantly benefits from continuous water supply from the South to North Water Diversion Project, which resulted in most stations significantly slowing down or even stabilizing their settlement rates after 2018. Therefore, the South-to-North Water Diversion Project plays a crucial role in addressing the persistent water resource shortage and mitigating long-term surface subsidence in Tianjin by ensuring a continuous water supply and significantly reducing the need for groundwater extraction. Our findings indicate positive measures, such as water diversion projects and water management policies, can serve as valuable references for other regions around the world facing similar water scarcity and groundwater overexploitation.