Slums Evolution and Sustainable Urban Growth: A Comparative Study of Makoko and Badia-East Areas in Lagos City

This research addresses the evolution of slums in two specific areas of Lagos City, a consequence of rapid urbanization in developing economies. The study aims to analyze the key characteristics of slums' evolution while analyzing mathematical spatial changes within the Badia-East and Makoko slum areas in two decades, focusing on promoting sustainable urban growth. The integration of Remote Sensing (RS) technology and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools has dramatically facilitated the monitoring of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes over two decades. This research used Landsat imagery acquired in 2000, 2010, and 2020 to meet our research aims. The research applied supervised classification and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) for image mapping and mathematical-based analysis. Research created a spatial framework using grid-cell maps, performed change detection, and generated detailed maps to support our analysis. A comparative analysis was also performed in the selected areas with a different history in slum management systems. The findings reveal that both Makoko and Badia-East exhibit slum-like characteristics. Makoko witnessed a significant increase in informal built-up expansion of 27.6% and 7.7% between 2000 and 2010 and between 2010 and 2020, respectively. These changes converted 34.65 hectares of non-built-up land in Makoko into built-up areas. Conversely, Badia-East reported an increase in built-up areas only between 2000 and 2010, which amounted to 8.5%. However, the government's intervention caused a decrease of 12.7% in built-up areas of Badia-East between 2010 and 2020. The study underscores the urgent need for slum clearance and upgrading initiatives in Makoko, like those implemented in Badia-East between 2013 and 2017. The conclusion drawn from the study of Makoko's informal built-up areas is that it is causing adverse effects on human life and the environment. The expansion has resulted in an increase in air and water pollution, which is having adverse effects. Therefore, the study recommends upgrading and clearing out Makoko and suggests taking lessons from the successful experience in Badia-East. The study also highlights the importance of prioritizing community needs and voices to ensure efficient resource utilization while safeguarding the well-being of future generations.