Analysis of the Nonlinear and Spatial Spillover Effects of the Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin

Low-carbon development of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an inherent requirement for implementing ecological protection and high-quality development strategies in the YRB and an important way to achieve China's carbon peak and neutrality goals. However, utilization of the newly emerging digital economy to reduce carbon emissions in the YRB remains a largely unexplored topic. Based on panel data obtained from 56 cities in the YRB from 2011 to 2019, the nonlinear and spatial spillover effects of the digital economy on carbon emissions were studied using spatial econometric and multiple threshold effect models. The results showed that: (1) The digital economy had an inverted U-shaped relationship with carbon emissions, initially increasing and subsequently decreasing, with a more prominent impact intensity in upstream cities; (2) The digital economy had distinct negative spatial spillover effects on carbon emissions, with more significant effects observed in the midstream and downstream; (3) The digital economy had a nonlinear threshold effect on carbon emissions. When the optimization level of the industrial structure was above a certain threshold, the digital economy reduced carbon emissions. Based on these results, we propose suggestions for accelerating the healthy growth of the digital economy while promoting carbon emission reductions across the YRB.