Drought will constrain ongoing increase in net ecosystem productivity under future climate warming over alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

The alpine grasslands of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau play an important role in multiple ecosystem functions, all of which are key in regulating regional climate influences and providing pristine headwaters for millions of people downstream from this basin. Alpine grasslands act as a carbon sink, storing carbon dioxide and keeping heat-trapping greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere, but it is not clear how this will change in a warming climate in the future. In this paper, the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of alpine grasslands in Qinghai province, on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, was predicted for the period from 2010 to 2099. Trends and stability were analyzed under two climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) representing the lower and higher emission scenarios for greenhouse gases. The results suggest that grasslands will continue to contribute as a carbon sink, with a positive NEP through this century. Almost the same magnitude (38 Tg C a-1, 1 T g = 1012 g) of contribution was projected under both scenarios. Grasslands are projected to be the major contributor to NEP in Qinghai province, with more than 89% of NEP in the future. The carbon sink function will increase over more than 69% of the grasslands and peak around 2069 (RCP4.5) or 2066 (RCP8.5). Then the carbon sink function will begin to decrease and it will decrease more quickly and become more variable under the RCP8.5 than the RCP4.5. The impacts of temperature and precipitation changes were analyzed and NEP was found to be more sensitive to temperature than precipitation change. The trend of increasing contribution to NEP is driven by a warming climate, while the stability of NEP is mainly influenced by the precipitation, which results in an upward trend before the peak and a decline due to stresses from limits in available water in a continued warming climate.