Development of preoperative and postoperative models to predict recurrence in postoperative glioma patients: a longitudinal cohort study

Background Glioma recurrence, subsequent to maximal safe resection, remains a pivotal challenge. This study aimed to identify key clinical predictors influencing recurrence and develop predictive models to enhance neurological diagnostics and therapeutic strategies. Methods This longitudinal cohort study with a substantial sample size (n = 2825) included patients with non-recurrent glioma who were pathologically diagnosed and had undergone initial surgical resection between 2010 and 2018. Logistic regression models and stratified Cox proportional hazards models were established with the top 15 clinical variables significantly influencing outcomes screened by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. Preoperative and postoperative models predicting short-term (within 6 months) postoperative recurrence in glioma patients were developed to explore the risk factors associated with short- and long-term recurrence in glioma patients. Results Preoperative and postoperative logistic models predicting short-term recurrence had accuracies of 0.78 and 0.87, respectively. A range of biological and early symptomatic characteristics linked to short- and long-term recurrence have been pinpointed. Age, headache, muscle weakness, tumor location and Karnofsky score represented significant odd ratios (t > 2.65, p < 0.01) in the preoperative model, while age, WHO grade 4 and chemotherapy or radiotherapy treatments (t > 4.12, p < 0.0001) were most significant in the postoperative period. Postoperative predictive models specifically targeting the glioblastoma and IDH wildtype subgroups were also performed, with an AUC of 0.76 and 0.80, respectively. The 50 combinations of distinct risk factors accommodate diverse recurrence risks among glioma patients, and the nomograms visualizes the results for clinical practice. A stratified Cox model identified many prognostic factors for long-term recurrence, thereby facilitating the enhanced formulation of perioperative care plans for patients, and glioblastoma patients displayed a median progression-free survival (PFS) of only 11 months. Conclusion The constructed preoperative and postoperative models reliably predicted short-term postoperative glioma recurrence in a substantial patient cohort. The combinations risk factors and nomograms enhance the operability of personalized therapeutic strategies and care regimens. Particular emphasis should be placed on patients with recurrence within six months post-surgery, and the corresponding treatment strategies require comprehensive clinical investigation.