Climate change and climate niche shift equally attribute to the northwest range expansion of Asian house rats under intensified human activities

ContextThe earth is experiencing accelerated global change which has significantly altered the range distribution of species which would bring serious ecological problems, but the distinctive roles of climate change, human activity, and climate niche shift in the range shift of species have been rarely quantified, especially in the spatial-temporal scale.ObjectivesIn this study, we quantified the roles of climate change, human activity and climate niche shift on the range expansion of Asian house rates in China and Asia.MethodsBy using historical records from literature, we examined associations of the range shift of Asian house rats with human density, air temperature, precipitation, and climate niche shift from 1920 to 2021 in its native and invaded regions in China and Asia.ResultsWe found that Asian house rats showed an obvious range expansion from the southeast (warm and wet) to the northwest (cold and dry) of China since 1980. The first observation probability of Asian house rats in a place of China showed a significant positive association with an increase in air temperature and human population density, but a non-significant association with precipitation. Climate niche shift had a larger impact (similar to 50%) on sites in the newly invaded areas than that (< 10%) in the native areas.ConclusionsOur study indicates that under intensified human activities, both climate change and climate niche shift equally attribute to the northwest expansion of Asian house rats during the past few decades. Our results provide novel insights into the key factors and mechanisms in shaping range shift of animals, and significant implications for predicting and managing the range shift of species under accelerated global change.