Agricultural Carbon Emissions Embodied in China's Foreign Trade and Its Driving Factors

Since the development of global trade, the involvement of agriculture in globalization has been increasing. Globalization and trade have led to the separation of production and consumption, triggering a worldwide relocation of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE). By linking a global ACE database to a global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model, this paper calculates the ACE embodied in China's foreign trade. Moreover, by using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method, it analyzes the impacts of embodied ACE intensity, trade scale, industrial structure, economic development and consumption levels, and population on China's ACE. We found that the impact of globalization on China's ACE is gradually increasing. China has shifted from a net ACE exporter (the net export volume in 1961 was 13.52 million tons) to a net ACE importer (the net import volume in 2016 was 40.35 million tons). By investigating the underlying mechanisms, we found that the dominant factor was the inhibitory effect of the decline in the embodied ACE intensity of China, contributing 73% to the increase in net import volume, followed by the expansion of trade and the decline in the proportion of agricultural output value in GDP, with contribution rates of 17 and 10%, respectively.