New Chinese Economic Policy to Latin America? A QCA Approach to the Belt and Road Initiative

Despite the apparent strengthening of China-LAC relations, illustrated by growing economic and political trends such as the increase in trade and investments and the expansion of the BRI to LAC, there have been few attempts to empirically analyze the evolution of Chinese economic policy to the region. Bridging the literature on China-LAC relations, this research examines the potential consequences of the BRI expansion in 2018. To that end, this study performed an original QCA encompassing 26 countries for 2018-2021. This analysis finds that BRI political engagement cannot explain Chinese investments to LAC. Contrarily, such flows are better understood by the traditional elements widely established in the specialized FDI literature. Consequently, it is possible to remark that regardless of BRI enlargement to include LAC, Chinese economic relations to that region have remained stable, focusing on trade and investments. These findings advance our understanding of Chinese overall economic policy to the region and the BRI rollout.