Levothyroxine initiation and the risk of pregnancy loss among pregnant women with subclinical hypothyroidism: An observational study emulating a target trial

Background: While the benefits of levothyroxine are well-established for overt hypothyroidism, they are unclear for subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) among pregnant women.Objective: To estimate the effect of initiation of levothyroxine on pregnancy loss among women with SCH with an emulated target trial using observational data.Methods: We emulated a target trial using the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink to account for the staggered timing of diagnosis and treatment of SCH and the time of entry of women into prenatal care. We emulated multiple nested trials (at each gestational week) and used an intention-to-treat approach to define levothyroxine use (>= 1 prescription in the 7 days prior to trial entry), with eligible users matched to non-users (1:4) on time of diagnosis, gestational week of the first eligible trial and high-dimensional propensity score. Pregnancy losses included spontaneous abortion and stillbirth. A pooled logistic regression model with bootstrap resampling was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).Results: Based on 159,177 eligible person-trials (5781 women), the matched cohort included 181 initiators and 640 non-initiators of levothyroxine, with 57 pregnancy losses occurring during follow-up. Overall, the mean age of women was 32.2 years (SD 5.4), 25% were obese, 8% had type 2 diabetes and about 50% were nulliparous. After matching, women who initiated levothyroxine versus not had higher thyroid-stimulating levels during pregnancy and were more likely to have a history of hypothyroidism. The cumulative incidence of pregnancy loss was lower in initiators versus non-initiators of levothyroxine. The adjusted HR for pregnancy loss was 0.87 (95% CI 0.22, 1.56).Conclusions: Although our assessment of the effect of initiation of levothyroxine for SCH in pregnancy precludes any definitive conclusions due to wide confidence intervals, this study illustrates the feasibility of using the target trial emulation framework to examine the effectiveness of medication use in pregnancy.