3D mechanical analysis of geothermal reservoir operations in faulted sedimentary aquifers using MACRIS

Accurate and efficient predictions of three-dimensional subsurface stress changes are required for the assessment of geothermal operations with respect to fault stability and the potential risk for induced seismicity. This work extends the model capabilities of Mechanical Analysis of Complex Reservoirs for Induced Seismicity (MACRIS) to account for high-resolution thermo-elastic stress evaluations in structurally complex (i.e. faulted) and matrix permeability dominated geothermal systems. By adopting a mesh-free approach suitable to industry standard flow simulation models, MACRIS is capable of preserving the complex 3D hydraulic development of the injected cold-water volume and the 3D geometrical complexities of the reservoir model. The workflow has been applied to three-dimensional models with clastic reservoir characteristics representative for low enthalpy geothermal exploitation in the Netherlands. The models are marked by a single fault, subject to no and normal offset. Comparison of simulated stress evolutions in MACRIS with alternative analytical solutions highlight the effects of stress arching involved in the poro- and thermo-elastic stress developments on complex faults intersected by or in direct contact with the cold-water volume. Results are in agreement with previous studies and show the effect of thermal stressing to be dominant, arching of stresses to occur at the rim of the cold-water volume, and in cooling reservoirs, the intersection area of the cold-water volume in direct contact with the fault plane to be the main driver for fault reactivation and subsequent seismic potential. Moreover, results show the effects of stress arching (i) to be enhanced in the case of reservoir throw and flow compartmentalization, and (ii) to be reduced by a relative increase in conductive heat transfer between the reservoir and surrounding formations.