Cost-Driven Assessment of Technologies' Potential to Reach Climate Neutrality in Energy-Intensive Industries

Efforts towards climate neutrality in Europe must prioritise manufacturing industries, particularly the energy-intensive industry (EII) subsectors. This work proposes a novel approach to assessing transformation options for EII subsectors. At the center of this approach we position a potential analysis of technologies' impact on subsector decarbonisation-an approach only known so far from the investigation of renewable energy potentials. These so-called technical climate neutrality potentials, supplemented by a set of indicators taking into account energy consumption, capital and operational expenditures, and GHG taxation programs per technology and subsector, enable cross-sector comparisons. The indicators allow the reader to compare the impact on GHG emission mitigation, energy demand, and cost for every considered technology. At the same time, we keep an open mind regarding combinations of technological solutions in the overall energy system. This ensures that the technology pathways with the greatest climate neutrality potential are easily identified. These focal points can subsequently serve in, e.g., narrative-driven scenario analyses to define comprehensive guides for action for policymakers. A case study of Austria for the proposed potential analysis demonstrates that bio-CH4 and electrolysis-derived H2 are the most economical green gases, but GHG certificate costs will be necessary for cost-competitiveness in high-temperature applications. Electrification offers advantages over conventional technologies and CO2-neutral gas alternatives in low-to-mid temperature ranges. Under the given assumptions, including GHG emission certificate costs of 250 EUR/t CO2, alternative technologies in the identified climate neutrality pathways can operate at total annual costs comparable to conventional fossil-based equivalents.