A comparison of machine learning approaches for predicting hepatotoxicity potential using chemical structure and targeted transcriptomic data

Animal toxicity testing is time and resource intensive, making it difficult to keep pace with the number of substances requiring assessment. Machine learning (ML) models that use chemical structure information and high-throughput experimental data can be helpful in predicting potential toxicity. However, much of the toxicity data used to train ML models is biased with an unequal balance of positives and negatives primarily since substances selected for in vivo testing are expected to elicit some toxicity effect. To investigate the impact this bias had on predictive performance, various sampling approaches were used to balance in vivo toxicity data as part of a supervised ML workflow to predict hepatotoxicity outcomes from chemical structure and/or targeted transcriptomic data. From the chronic, subchronic, developmental, multigenerational reproductive, and subacute repeat-dose testing toxicity outcomes with a minimum of 50 positive and 50 negative substances, 18 different study-toxicity outcome combinations were evaluated in up to 7 ML models. These included Artificial Neural Networks, Random Forests, Bernouilli Naive Bayes, Gradient Boosting, and Support Vector classification algorithms which were compared with a local approach, Generalised Read-Across (GenRA), a similarity-weighted kNearest Neighbour (k-NN) method. The mean CV F1 performance for unbalanced data across all classifiers and descriptors for chronic liver effects was 0.735 (0.0395 SD). Mean CV F1 performance dropped to 0.639 (0.073 SD) with over-sampling approaches though the poorer performance of KNN approaches in some cases contributed to the observed decrease (mean CV F1 performance excluding KNN was 0.697 (0.072 SD)). With undersampling approaches, the mean CV F1 was 0.523 (0.083 SD). For developmental liver effects, the mean CV F1 performance was much lower with 0.089 (0.111 SD) for unbalanced approaches and 0.149 (0.084 SD) for undersampling. Over-sampling approaches led to an increase in mean CV F1 performance (0.234, (0.107 SD)) for developmental liver toxicity. Model performance was found to be dependent on dataset, model type, balancing approach and feature selection. Accordingly tailoring ML workflows for predicting toxicity should consider class imbalance and rely on simple classifiers first.