Conflicts and tourists' destination choice intention: a study of Kashmir Valley in India

PurposeThis study aims to extend the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) to develop finer understanding about tourist's attitude and intention towards visiting a politically unstable and conflict-ridden destination such as Kashmir. Design/methodology/approachA research instrument adapted from previous studies is administered on 490 tourists. The data collected is subjected to exploratory factor analysis followed by structural equation modelling using SPSS and AMOS. The study tests and validates a more robust behavioural prediction model grounded on the TPB. FindingsThe results of the study found that the tourists' destination choice intention in a politically sensitive area such as Jammu and Kashmir is collectively determined by perceived destination attractiveness, perceived destination image, familiarity with place, media exposure and perceived value. However, quite interestingly, perceived risk and attitude were found to be insignificant determinants of choice intentionality. Research limitations/implicationsThe study empirically validates extended TPB to predict tourist behaviour in a politically sensitive setting. Furthermore, the study provides vital inputs to the destination managers, policy makers and practitioners to develop strategies to enhance destination image and attractiveness. Although the study provides critical insights into the tourist's decision-making process, nonetheless, certain limitations, such as restricted geographical approach, convenience sampling and ignoring the inter-group variations, warrant attention. Originality/valueThe study is essentially a pioneering effort in applying an integrated TPB model in determining destination choice intentionality in a politically sensitive region of Jammu and Kashmir. The region has the potential to be one of the best destinations in the world. Therefore, studying the tourist perceptions and attitudes and intention towards Kashmir could help the local government and other destination management organizations in charting future courses of action.