Climate Change Impacts on North Carolina Roadway System in 2050: A Systemic Perspective on Risk Interactions and Failure Propagation

This research article presents a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on North Carolina's roadway system in 2050, considering six distinct scenarios, including sunny day and storm conditions, and three future climate projections. The study contributes to existing literature by incorporating risk interactions and failure propagation through a Travel Demand Modeling process. The analysis follows a three-step analytical approach, including identifying climate change scenarios, modeling climate stressors, and analyzing transportation system response. The results show potentially severe climate change threats, leading to 0.23 - 1.24% of trips underserved and 2.74 - 15.11% of roadway links on the southern coast operating at a speed of fewer than 10 mph. Moreover, the analysis reveals clear spatial patterns in climate change impacts, with the northern coast experiencing more inaccessibility and the southern coast facing greater congestion. The results show a non-linear and dynamic response of roadway system to climate change. The study highlights four policy implications, including increasing system redundancy, protecting critical infrastructure, acknowledging spatial disparities, and considering potential relocation strategies. The analysis also sheds lights on the mechanism behind roadway system response, showing the possible existence of a tipping point.