Groundwater Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Sustainability in the Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

被引:4
|
作者
Khadim, Fahad Khan [1 ]
Dokou, Zoi [2 ]
Lazin, Rehenuma [1 ]
Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C. [1 ]
Anagnostou, Emmanouil [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Connecticut, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Storrs, CT 06269 USA
[2] Calif State Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sacramento, CA 95819 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
groundwater model; sustainability; MODFLOW-NWT; Upper Blue; LAKE TANA; RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT; SURFACE-WATER; RIVER-BASIN; SIMULATION; CATCHMENT; MANAGEMENT; SUBBASIN; AQUIFERS; BALANCE;
D O I
10.3390/su15076284
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Climate change effects on long-term groundwater (GW) resource developments in the Tana Basin, Ethiopia, are a growing concern. Efforts to provide estimates under various climatic uncertainties are lacking in the region. To address this need, we deployed a fine-resolution (500 m) GW model using MODFLOW-NWT for the Tana Basin, Upper the Blue Nile region. The GW model was calibrated based on 98 historical instantaneous well-level measurements (RMSE = 16.36 m, 1.6% of range), and 38 years of monthly lake level data (RMSE = 0.2 m, 6.7% of range). We used the model to simulate long-term climate change impacts by considering two representative concentration pathways, (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the two extreme global circulation models (MIROC5 for wetter conditions and CSIRO-Mk3 for drier conditions) available in the region. While the MIROC5 simulated GW table (GWT) was found to be stable, the CSIRO-Mk3 simulated GWT exhibited large fluctuations within +2 m to -4 m by 2100 due to climate change. More critical impacts were predicted for the lake, where total lake releases from the baseline scenario were foreseen to be changed by +50% (MIROC5) or -22% (CSIRO-Mk3) by the end of 2100.
引用
收藏
页数:23
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] Climate extreme indices analysis and spatiotemporal trend variation over Lake Tana sub-basin, upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia: under future climate change
    Mikhael G. Alemu
    Melsew A. Wubneh
    [J]. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2023, 16 (12)
  • [22] Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Gilgel Abbay Watershed, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
    Ayele, Hailu Sheferaw
    Li, Ming-Hsu
    Tung, Ching-Pin
    Liu, Tzu-Ming
    [J]. WATER, 2016, 8 (09):
  • [23] GENERATION OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE UPPER BLUE NILE RIVER BASIN, ETHIOPIA
    Kim, Ungtae
    Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.
    Smakhtin, Vladimir U.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, 2008, 44 (05): : 1231 - 1247
  • [24] Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
    Asnake Enawgaw Amognehegn
    Asmare Belay Nigussie
    Dessalegn Worku Ayalew
    Fikru F. Abera
    Mihret Ayana
    [J]. Applied Water Science, 2023, 13
  • [25] Climate change and hydrological response of Megech catchment, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia
    Addisu, Solomon
    Tadele, Ahmed
    Lema, Hanibal
    [J]. GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL, 2024, 39 (01)
  • [26] Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
    Amognehegn, Asnake Enawgaw
    Nigussie, Asmare Belay
    Ayalew, Dessalegn Worku
    Abera, Fikru F.
    Ayana, Mihret
    [J]. APPLIED WATER SCIENCE, 2023, 13 (07)
  • [27] Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
    Worqlul, Abeyou Wale
    Taddele, Yihun Dile
    Ayana, Essayas Kaba
    Jeong, Jaehak
    Adem, Anwar Assefa
    Gerik, Thomas
    [J]. WATER, 2018, 10 (02)
  • [28] Review, impact of land use/cover change on soil erosion in the Lake Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia
    Bogale, Alemsha
    [J]. APPLIED WATER SCIENCE, 2020, 10 (12)
  • [29] Review, impact of land use/cover change on soil erosion in the Lake Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia
    Alemsha Bogale
    [J]. Applied Water Science, 2020, 10
  • [30] Changes and variability of precipitation and temperature in the Guna Tana watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
    Dawit, Meseret
    Halefom, Afera
    Teshome, Asirat
    Sisay, Ermias
    Shewayirga, Biruk
    Dananto, Mihret
    [J]. MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT, 2019, 5 (04) : 1395 - 1404