Assessing the Impact of Emerging Vertical Markets on 5G Diffusion Forecasting

5G technology is not only a next-generation mobile network used for human communications, but also provides a worthy solution to machine-to-machine (M2M) communications requirements that contribute to the digital transformation of many vertical industries including factories of the future, media and entertainment, eHealth, and energy, among others. The assessment of the impact of 5G technology adoption by these M2M vertical markets on the overall 5G service demand represents a challenge for telecommunication operators, policy makers, and regulators, as it is a key factor affecting the underlying techno-economic analysis used for the formulation of their strategic planning and competition policy shaping. Within this scope, in this study, a methodology for overall 5G service diffusion forecasting is proposed that takes into account the introduction of 5G technology in multiple vertical markets. This methodology is based on stochastic modeling of 5G service diffusion in every vertical market under study. It also employs Monte Carlo simulation to generate potential forecast paths for the aggregate 5G service demand. Study findings indicate that the emergence of vertical markets has a significant positive impact on the saturation point of overall 5G demand without increasing the service's diffusion uncertainty to the same degree.