Carbon emissions prediction considering environment protection investment of 30 provinces in China

In the backdrop of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, carbon emissions have always been a major concern. The approach of the heterogeneity grey model is proposed, aiming to predict carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China. This model combines the manta ray foraging optimization algorithm to search for the optimal heterogeneity coefficient. By using the heterogeneity grey model, the carbon emissions are analyzed in 30 provinces of China from 2022 to 2030 considering different environmental protection investment scenarios. The results indicate that in 19 provinces from 2022 to 2030, there is a significant decrease in carbon emissions as government investment increases. In 11 provinces during the same period, there is a rising trend in carbon emissions with the increase of government investment. Hence, achieving a reduction in carbon emissions necessitates not only relying on government investment in environmental protection but also exploring alternative approaches to mitigate carbon emissions. The methodologies and conclusions proposed in this study can provide technical references and making decision references for provincial carbon emission efforts.