Does the optimism hypothesis hold true when assessed using large-scale data? Evidence from Norwegian PIRLS 2016

The optimism hypothesis claims that immigrant students do better in the Norwegian education system than their socioeconomic status would suggest, due to the strong educational aspirations that immigrant parents might have for their children. Grounded in an educational equity paradigm, this study aims to test this hypothesis by investigating direct and indirect influences on students' reading achievement, assessing both how often the students speak the language of instruction, Norwegian, at home; and the effect for students of parents' educational levels that affect parents' academic expectations and parents' help with homework. Using PIRLS 2016 data from Norway (n = 4,232, mean age 10.8), path analysis provided evidence that both students' home language and parents' educational level directly influence reading achievement. The mediating roles of parents' academic expectations and parents' help with homework on these relationships fluctuated. Thus, the data provided evidence that only partially supports the optimism hypothesis.