Analysis of Power Resilience for Outdated Residential Power Distribution Systems in Realistic Operating Conditions

Circuit breakers are essential protective devices in power distribution systems. In reality, some power distribution systems are often-seen to be deployed in an outdoor environment, for example, outdated residential buildings and expeditionary power networks. Such complicated operating environment may cause the circuit breakers to be unexpectedly tripped, and endangers the power resilience of the power distribution system. In addition, used circuit breakers with loose mechanisms and/or oxidised contacts may have different tripping characteristics than when they were new. Such aging/worn effects may become more significant if a power distribution system is deployed outdoors and lacks routine maintenance, not to mention in some outdated residential buildings, substandard circuit breakers are not difficult to be spotted. In this paper, we propose a probability based systemic modeling method to estimate the actual tripping time of a circuit breaker under overload currents. With the consideration of aforementioned factors as input variables and the environment in the complicated operating conditions, this model could be used to predict the power outage and grid failure, especially for the outdated residential power distribution system.