Risk-informed design and safety assessment of structures in a changing climate: a review of US practice and a path forward

Standards for the design of bridges, buildings and other infrastructure specify design loads for climatic hazards such as temperature, snow, wind, and floods based on return periods presented in maps or tables that account for regional differences. These design loads were developed from statistical analyses of historical hazard data under the assumption that the past is representative of the future. Climate change may affect the frequencies and intensities of environmental hazards which, depending on regional variations, raises questions as to whether structures designed to current specifications will meet minimum safety standards over their future service lives. This paper critically appraises issues related to using historical hazard data for future designs. It reviews basic principles of uniform reliability, that modern design codes use as the basis for ensuring minimum levels of safety, describing the relationship between hazard return periods, structural reliability, risk and the maximum loads expected within a structure's service life. Simple examples involving wind effects on structures demonstrate how to calibrate structural design hazard maps for climate-related extreme events to meet the minimum standards of safety implied in current specifications. The paper also introduces a possible practical approach to account for climate change when designing new structures and assessing the safety of existing facilities.