A conditional inference tree model for predicting cancer risk of non-mass lesions detected on breast ultrasound

Objectives To generate and validate a prediction model based on imaging features for cancer risk of non-mass lesions (NMLs) detected on breast ultrasound (US).Methods In this single-center study, consecutive women with 503 NMLs detected on breast US between 2012 and 2019 were retrospectively identified. The lesions were randomly assigned to the training or testing dataset with a 70/30 split. Age, symptoms, lesion size, and US features were collected. Multivariate analyses were employed to identify risk factors associated with malignancy. The predictive model was developed by using conditional inference trees (CTREE).Results There were 498 patients (50.9 +/- 13.29 years; range, 22-88 years) with 503 NMLs with histopathologic results or > 2-year follow-up, including 224 (44.5%) benign and 279 (55.5%) malignant lesions. At multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio (OR) = 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-1.11, p < 0.001), NMLs with focal mass effect (OR = 3.03, 95% CI, 1.59-5.81, p = 0.001), indistinct glandular-fat interface (GFI) (OR = 4.23, 95% CI, 2.31-7.73, p < 0.001), geographic (OR = 3.47, 95% CI, 1.20-10.8, p = 0.022) and mottled (OR = 3.67, 95% CI, 1.32-10.21, p = 0.013) patterns, and calcifications (OR = 2.15, 95% CI, 1.16-4.01, p = 0.016) were associated with malignancy. The GFI status, architectural patterns, general morphology, and calcifications were consistently identified as the strongest US predictors of malignancy using CTREE analysis. Based on these factors, individuals were stratified into six risk groups. The predictive model showed an area under the curve of 0.797 in the testing dataset.Conclusion The CTREE model efficiently aids in interpreting and managing ultrasound-detected breast NMLs, overcoming BI-RADS limitations by refining cancer risk stratification. Clinical relevance statement The CTREE model allows for the reclassification of BI-RADS categories into subgroups with varying malignancy probabilities, thus providing a valuable enhancement to the BI-RADS assessment for the diagnosis of ultrasound-detected NMLs, with the potential to minimize unnecessary biopsies.