A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes

被引：11

作者：

Potter, Emily R. R. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Fyffe, Catriona L. L. ^{[4
]}

Orr, Andrew ^{[2
]}

Quincey, Duncan J. J. ^{[1
]}

Ross, Andrew N. N. ^{[5
]}

Rangecroft, Sally ^{[6
,7
]}

Medina, Katy ^{[8
,9
]}

Burns, Helen ^{[5
]}

Llacza, Alan ^{[10
]}

Jacome, Gerardo ^{[10
]}

Hellstrom, Robert A. ^{[11
]}

Castro, Joshua ^{[12
]}

Cochachin, Alejo ^{[13
]}

Montoya, Nilton ^{[12
]}

Loarte, Edwin ^{[8
,9
]}

Pellicciotti, Francesca ^{[4
,14
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Leeds, England

[2] British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, England

[3] Univ Innsbruck, Dept Atmospher & Cryospher Sci, Innsbruck, Austria

[4] Northumbria Univ, Engn & Environm, Newcastle Upon Tyne, England

[5] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, England

[6] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Sch Geog, Exeter, England

[7] Univ Plymouth, Sch Geog, Earth & Environm Sci, Plymouth, England

[8] Inst Nacl Invest Glaciares & Ecosistemas Montana, Huaraz, Peru

[9] Santiago Antunez De Mayolo Natl Univ, Huaraz, Peru

[10] Serv Nacl Meteorol & Hidrol Peru, Lima, Peru

[11] Bridgewater State Univ, Bridgewater, MA USA

[12] Univ Nacl San Antonio Abad Cusco, Cuzco, Peru

[13] Autor Nacl Agua, Huaraz, Peru

[14] Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res, Zurich, Switzerland

来源：

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE | 2023年 / 6卷 / 01期

关键词：

CORDILLERA VILCANOTA; GLACIER RECESSION; TROPICAL ANDES; CLIMATE TRENDS; MASS-BALANCE; TEMPERATURE; IMPACTS; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; EXAMPLE; VALLEY;

D O I：

10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 & DEG;C and 4.1 & DEG;C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12% precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75% for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenarios. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.

引用

页数：9

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