A Consumption-Based Integrated Framework for Subnational Absolute Environmental Sustainability Management

As human consumption expands, four environmental footprints (EFs) exceed the planetary boundaries (PBs) at the global scale. Managing absolute environmental sustainability (AES) based on PBs and EFs at the subnational level is crucial for policy insights. However, a consumption-based AES management framework still needs to be developed. A framework, including five nexus environmental pressures embodied in the supply chain, was developed and tested in our study across China's 30 provinces to address this knowledge gap. The framework involved three steps: (a) assessing AES for five environmental pressures, (b) measuring environmental surplus and overshoot and composition of EFs, and (c) identifying priority areas for AES management. The results showed that only some provinces are sustainable for three impact-oriented indicators, especially those with larger populations. Moreover, the embodied environmental pressure mainly flows from the Northwest to Southeast China. For two resource-oriented indicators, over 74% of provinces are absolutely sustainable. From a nexus perspective, Shandong and Shanghai are identified as priorities for AES management due to their low IESI values of 0.32, 0.33, and 0.40, respectively, which means the worst performance. To improve their IESI, Shanghai needs to control the consumption of blue water-intensive products, while Shandong and Henan should consume fewer CO2 emissions and N- and P-loss-intensive products. This framework can clarify subnational responsibilities of environmental overshoots, guide sustainable development, and be widely used at the subnational level in countries worldwide. Earth's ecosystem has a limited ability to provide natural resources and accept pollutants. Absolute environmental sustainability (AES) assumes that irreversible impacts will occur once human needs surpass this capacity, emphasizing the need for policymaking based on the current situation. As a crucial policy-related entity, subnational regions urge AES management. Here, we focus not only on assessing AES of five environmental pressures (including carbon dioxide (CO2) emission, freshwater use, Nitrogen (N) loss, Phosphorus (P) loss, and land use) embodied in supply chains but also on identifying the priorities of AES management among 30 Chinese provinces. We found that the CO2, N, and P driven by final demands have transgressed the absolute limits in all provinces, especially with larger populations. They mainly consume products from Northwest China. More than 74% of the provinces are within the freshwater and land use boundaries. Shanghai, Shandong, and Henan are identified as priorities of AESA management because of their lousy performance from a nexus perspective. They should be responsible for consumption. Applying this framework globally at the subnational scale is crucial for consumption-based AES management and global environmental preservation. A consumption-based integrated framework for subnational environmental sustainability management within planetary boundaries was developed All Chinese provinces overconsumed Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Carbon dioxide-intensive products Henan, Shandong, Shanghai, and Jiangsu were identified as priorities for absolute environmental sustainability management