Sustainable agricultural management: How to achieve carbon neutrality in agriculture - evidence from China agricultural sustainable development plan

Agricultural sustainable development is of significant importance for achieving food security, environmental protection, climate change adaptation, natural resource conservation, and economic development. We conducted a study using the 2015 China Agricultural Sustainable Development Plan (ASDP) as a natural experiment and employed the Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to estimate the impact of ASDP on agricultural carbon neutrality. Path analysis and heterogeneity analysis were also performed. The results of this study are as follows: First, ASDP promotes agricultural carbon neutrality. Second, increasing per capita agricultural machinery usage, agricultural labor efficiency, livestock manure management, wastewater and waste treatment capacity, toilet coverage rate, greening efforts, and reducing pesticide usage are potential pathways of ASDP. Third, the analysis of carbon emission types indicates that current ASDP mainly focuses on carbon emissions from traditional agricultural practices, with limited impact on carbon emissions associated with modern agricultural activities, such as diesel fuel and pesticides. Lastly, the heterogeneity analysis of agricultural regions demonstrates that ASDP has a more positive impact on grain, oil, fruit and vegetable low-producing areas, cotton high-producing areas, and poultry, meat, eggs and milk aquaculture high-producing areas. This study estimates the carbon reduction effect of ASDP and provides new policy recommendations and reform directions for agricultural sustainable development in China and other developing countries.