Investigating the effects of water resources consumption reduction policies on agricultural sustainability in different climates in Iran

Choosing the best policy to reduce water consumption concerning social, economic, and environmental dimensions is a major challenge for policymakers. The purpose of this study is to evaluate agricultural sustainability and cropping pattern changes due to Water Resources Consumption Reduction Policies based on different scenarios. For this purpose, a study area in northern Iran with three different climates was selected. The required information including documentary and field data obtained from the farmers' questionnaire and face-to-face interviews with 492 farmers in 2019-2020. To achieve the objectives, Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) were applied. The results showed that quota policies can be considered as the best policy, and pricing policies only increase the farmers' costs. Also, WRCRP will lead to changes in cropping patterns and the amount of water consumed in all climates. Most discrepancies among the effects of WRCRP on sustainability are related to the importance of each economic, social and environmental aspect. In fact, selecting each scenario by government is dependent on the status of the region on that specific time. It is necessary for the policymakers to evaluate their considered policies before implementation to reduce the negative economic, social and environmental impacts.