Development and validation of a new risk assessment model for immunomodulatory drug-associated venous thrombosis among Chinese patients with multiple myeloma

Background Individuals with multiple myeloma (MM) receiving immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs) are at risk of developing venous thromboembolism (VTE), a serious complication. There is no established clinical model for predicting VTE in the Chinese population. We develop a new risk assessment model (RAM) for IMiD-associated VTE in Chinese MM patients. Methods We retrospectively selected 1334 consecutive MM patients receiving IMiDs from 16 medical centers in China and classified them randomly into the derivation and validation cohorts. A multivariate Cox regression model was used for analysis. Results The overall incidence of IMiD-related VTE in Chinese MM patients was 6.1%. Independent predictive factors of VTE (diabetes, ECOG performance status, erythropoietin-stimulating agent use, dexamethasone use, and VTE history or family history of thrombosis) were identified and merged to develop the RAM. The model identified approximately 30% of the patients in each cohort at high risk for VTE. The hazard ratios (HRs) were 6.08 (P < 0.001) and 6.23 (P < 0.001) for the high-risk subcohort and the low-risk subcohort, respectively, within both the derivation and validation cohorts. The RAM achieved satisfactory discrimination with a C statistic of 0.64. The stratification approach of the IMWG guidelines yielded respective HRs of 1.77 (P = 0.053) and 1.81 (P = 0.063). The stratification approach of the SAVED score resulted in HRs of 3.23 (P = 0.248) and 1.65 (P = 0.622), respectively. The IMWG guideline and the SAVED score-based method yielded C statistics of 0.58 and 0.51, respectively. Conclusions The new RAM outperformed the IMWG guidelines and the SAVED score and could potentially guide the VTE prophylaxis strategy for Chinese MM patients.