Evaluation of ABCD water balance conceptual model using remote sensing data in ungauged watersheds (a case study: Zarandeh, Iran)

Water balance is an important concern in water resources management and water consumption planning. ABCD water balance conceptual model is a suitable simulation tool due to its simplicity, low input data requirement, and water balance components provision. As the lack of data is a major challenge in many developing countries, IMERG precipitation satellite products and ERA5 temperature reanalysis data were used to obtain the required data for the Zarandeh sub-basin in Neyshabur Northeast Iran. The results were evaluated using four statistical indices including correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and BIAS. The Results showed that products are reasonably accurate, and there is a high correlation between outputs and observed data. Zarandeh and Baqi stations indicated the highest and lowest correlation of 0.89 and 0.84, respectively. This study aimed to use ABCD model and remote sensing products to determine the water balance. The uncertainties in the model parameters were assessed through Fuzzy numbers. Additionally, the Monte Carlo method was employed to calibrate them based on NSE as an objective function. The results illustrated that the ABCD water balance model is an accurate tool for simulating the surface runoff of the Zarandeh sub-basin with an efficiency coefficient of 0.86. Finally, the model was applied to the Sebi sub-basin in Torbat-e-Heydariyeh, with a moderate performance (NSE = 0.49) showing that the model parameters should be recalibrated in each region. This study indicates that the remote sensing products could be applied as appropriate tools in ungauged basins.