Weighted kernels improve multi-environment genomic prediction

Crucial to variety improvement programs is the reliable and accurate prediction of genotype's performance across environments. However, due to the impactful presence of genotype by environment (GxE) interaction that dictates how changes in expression and function of genes influence target traits in different environments, prediction performance of genomic selection (GS) using single-environment models often falls short. Furthermore, despite the successes of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), the genetic insights derived from genome-to-phenome mapping have not yet been incorporated in predictive analytics, making GS models that use Gaussian kernel primarily an estimator of genomic similarity, instead of the underlying genetics characteristics of the populations. Here, we developed a GS framework that, in addition to capturing the overall genomic relationship, can capitalize on the signal of genetic associations of the phenotypic variation as well as the genetic characteristics of the populations. The capacity of predicting the performance of populations across environments was demonstrated by an overall gain in predictability up to 31% for the winter wheat DH population. Compared to Gaussian kernels, we showed that our multi-environment weighted kernels could better leverage the significance of genetic associations and yielded a marked improvement of 4-33% in prediction accuracy for half-sib families. Furthermore, the flexibility incorporated in our Bayesian implementation provides the generalizable capacity required for predicting multiple highly genetic heterogeneous populations across environments, allowing reliable GS for genetic improvement programs that have no access to genetically uniform material.