Exploring the Spatiotemporal Coupling of Industry Development and Carbon Emissions of Energy-Intensive Industries (EII) in the Context of Industrial Transfer

This paper constructs a decoupling index model to explore the spatiotemporal coupling of industry transfer and emissions transfer of EII, and to obtain the factors affecting the changes of coupling by LMDI. Our conclusions are as follows: (1) there was a significant coupling of EII before 2016, but it was not clear after 2016. Specific to subindustries, they aren't synchronized with the performance of EII, the significant coupling only exists in raw chemical materials and products industry, no coupling was found in ferrous or nonferrous metal smelting and rolling industry, and in the other industries, the coupling is found only in some years. (2) For the eastern region, before 2016, the scale effect was smaller than the technological and structural effect, driving the decline in emissions; after 2016, the scale effect exceeded the others to promote the growth of emissions. For the western region, emissions growth was driven by the combined effects of scale and structure. For the central region, although the structural effect was positive before 2016, the technological effect exceeded the others to lower emissions; the structural effect turned negative after 2016, and since the structural and technological effect did not exceed the scale effect, the emissions level increased.