Youth voting and institutional change in the post-Arab Spring MENA region

Using a unique and novel dataset on the youth, the SAHWA Youth Survey (2016), we apply probit and ordered probit models to study the determinants of voting behaviour change among the youth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the post-Arab Spring era. We find that drivers of voting vary depending on whether we consider the voting behaviour in the last elections or the likelihood of voting in the next elections. Specifically, socioeconomic variables and some Arab Spring factors are significant for both types of elections. However, institutional variables and personal beliefs only affect the likelihood of voting in the next elections. We also document heterogeneous effects for the last and next votes by gender.