PROJECTING THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF DYSOSMA VERSIPELLIS (BERBERIDACEAE) IN CHINA UNDER PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

Dysosma versipellis is an ethnobotanical plant that has been classified as a Class II protected endangered plant in China due to habitat destruction in recent years. Studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of wild plant resources is of great significance for the sustainable utilization of D. versipellis resources. In this study, distribution information of 104 D. versipellis samples, 19 climate variables, and two periods under two future climate scenarios were collected. By combining the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, the potential distribution of D. versipellis under present and future climates, as well as the important climate variables affecting its distribution, were predicted. The results showed that the Maxent model had good predictive performance (AUC > 0.9) with high accuracy and reliability. The key climate variables for D. versipellis included annual precipitation (1054.8 similar to 1820.9 mm), mean diurnal range (6.2 similar to 8.2 degrees C), precipitation of the wettest quarter (486.2 similar to 1071.5 mm), mean temperature of the driest quarter (4.4 similar to 14.7; 15.1 similar to 16.1 degrees C), and temperature seasonality (511.6 similar to 578.6; 683.7 similar to 828.5). The highly suitable areas for D. versipellis were mainly distributed in Guizhou, western and southern Hunan, western Hubei, northeastern and southeastern Chongqing, northeastern and southeastern Sichuan, northern and southwestern Guangxi, northeastern and southeastern Yunnan, northwestern and eastern Jiangxi, southern Zhejiang, northern Fujian, and southern Taiwan. Under future climate change, the suitable areas for D. versipellis are projected to gradually shift towards Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu.