Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

被引：0

作者：

PAN Xinnong ^{[1
,2
]}

WANG Geli ^{[1
]}

YANG Peicai ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] College of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

来源：

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2019年 / 12卷 / 05期

基金：

国家重点研发计划; 中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

北大西洋涛动; 慢特征分析; 驱动力特征; 时间序列预测;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P732 [海洋气象学];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

北大西洋涛动(NAO)是北半球最重要的天气-气候变率模态之一。以往研究大都基于NAO的观测资料和数值模拟结果,分析它的可预报性特征问题。本文首先利用慢特征分析法提取逐日NAO指数的驱动力信息,并将之引入状态空间重构的过程。在此基础上计算引入慢特征信息后的NAO最大Lyapunov指数以及建立NAO的预测模型。结果表明,当引入其慢特征信号以后,NAO指数的可预报性及预报精度可以得到显著提高。并且利用子波分析探测到NAO的驱动力因子与太阳活动、QBO准两年振荡以及年循环相关。

引用

下载

页码：329 / 336

页数：8

共 21 条

[1] Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Pan Xinnong
Wang Geli
Yang Peicai
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2019, 12 (05) : 329 - 336
[2] Subseasonal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Albers, John R.
Newman, Matthew
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2021, 16 (04):
[3] Predictability and numerical modelling of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Bojariu, R
Gimeno, L
EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2003, 63 (1-2) : 145 - 168
[4] Jet latitude regimes and the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Strommen, Kristian
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2020, 146 (730) : 2368 - 2391
[5] How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?
Weisheimer, Antje
Decremer, Damien
MacLeod, David
O'Reilly, Christopher
Stockdale, Tim N.
Johnson, Stephanie
Palmer, Tim N.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2019, 145 (S1) : 140 - 159
[6] Remote control of North Atlantic Oscillation predictability via the stratosphere
Hansen, F.
Greatbatch, R. J.
Gollan, G.
Jung, T.
Weisheimer, A.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2017, 143 (703) : 706 - 719
[7] Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Onskog, Thomas
Franzke, Christian L. E.
Hannachi, Abdel
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2018, 31 (02) : 537 - 554
[8] Subseasonal variability and predictability of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation in BCCAGCM2.2
Zuo, Jinqing
Ren, Hong-Li
Wu, Jie
Nie, Yu
Li, Qiaoping
DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS, 2016, 75 : 33 - 45
[9] Signal and noise in regime systems: A hypothesis on the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Strommen, Kristian
Palmer, Tim N.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2019, 145 (718) : 147 - 163
[10] The Forced Response and Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation: Nonstationary and Fragile Skills
Christiansen, Bo
Yang, Shuting
Matte, Dominic
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2022, 35 (18) : 5869 - 5882

← 1 2 3 →