Estimation of emission reduction potential in China's industrial sector

The industrial sector is usually the largest economy sector for carbon emissions in many countries,which made it the sector with greatest potential for carbon reduction although the process duration might be very long.Studying the potential of industrial emission reduction has great significance in estimating the carbon emission peak of China on the one hand,and adjusting its strategy in international climate change negotiations.By employing the economic accounting method,this article estimates the emission reduction potential of China’s Industrial sector for the period of 2010-2050.It reveals that,taking 2030 as the year when the emission reaches the peak,the total reduction can be 8.38 billion tons(bts) for the period of 2010-2030,with 3.12 bts from structural reduction while 5.26 bts from intensity reduction.Afterwards,reduction will continue with a total amount of 6.59 bts for the period of 2030-2050,where the structural reduction accounts for 2.47 bts,and intensity reduction 4.115 bts.If both industrial and energy consumption structures are improved during the above period,the reduction potential can be even greater,e.g.the emission peak can arrive five years earlier(in the year of 2025) and the peak value can decline by about 8%as compared to the original estimation.Reviewing the trajectory of emission changes in developed countries indicates that the industry sector can contribute to the overall reduction targets through the dual wheels of structural reduction and intensity reduction,even beyond the emission peak.This article concludes with the following policy suggestions.(1) Our estimation on the emission peak of the industrial sector suggests that China should avoid any commitment earlier than 2030 on the timeline of the overall emission peak;(2) the great potential of industrial emission reduction can improve the situation of China in climate change negotiation,where the intensity reduction can serve as an important policy option.(3) Reduction potential can be further enhanced through technology advancement,which requires furthering of market oriented reforms and improvement of institutional design.(4) To secure the reduction effects of the industrial structure adjustment,the balanced development among different regions should be encouraged in order to avoid the reverse adjustment caused by industrial transferring.(5) International cooperation promoting the application and development of industrial emission reduction technologies,including carbon capture,utilization and storage,should be encouraged.